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Polling in China

An Original Article for Mei-Zhong Guanxi by Anton Lee Wishik II

Recently, one of the issues brought up in the discussion of blanket statements by the Chinese press(link) was related to the exact level of support for the Olympics among the Chinese people.  It has been declared in the Chinese press from time to time that the Olympics are supported by ‘all’ the Chinese people, or simply ‘the Chinese people.’  It seems to be generally agreed that while it’s not possible for 1.3 billion people to all share a certain view without exception, most people assume that a great majority of the Chinese are in agreement in their support for the Olympics.  So then the question becomes, why doesn’t the Chinese government or media provide concrete statistics to back their claims?  It would be a simple matter to do some sampling of Chinese opinion.  So then, why isn’t there more polling in China?

First, let’s discuss what may be many people’s initial reaction to the question.  Some would respond that the Chinese government doesn’t care about the sentiments of the people.  This argument can be dismissed on both a macro and micro level.  On a macro level, one only needs to listen to Chinese President Hu Jintao.  During a recent visit to the People’s Daily, Mr. Hu chatted online and responded to questions posed by Chinese netizens (albeit in a carefully controlled and manicured environment).  Mr. Hu mentioned that he checks the People’s Daily forums to get a read on public sentiment.  Chinese officials rarely make offhand statements, and most spectators acknowledged the significance of this event, namely that the head of the party cares about what people are saying. At the micro level, one of the major responsibilities of local governments is to maintain stability and prevent outbreaks of unrest.  Obviously their ability to do this is dependent upon their level of familiarity with the concerns of the people.

Another misconception regarding polling in China may be that it is outlawed by the Chinese government in the same way that many other freedoms of expression are suppressed.  Again, this can be dismissed with some simple precursory research.  Several of the top results of a Google search on ‘China polling’ are links to a company called China Polling which is based in Beijing(link).  In fact, the headline ‘What do Chinese consumers really think about the Olympics?’ is splashed across China Polling’s homepage.  However, this kind of data alone should not be seen as proof of an open polling environment in China.  It is significant that they are polling Chinese ‘consumers’ as opposed to Chinese ‘citizens.’  To gain access to China Polling’s data, one must first register their company at the site.  Case studies at the site include ‘Famous Coffee Shop (You know which one).’  It is worth noting that this kind of commercial polling would clearly be more palatable to the Chinese government.  So, while this proves that polling exists in China, it is not exactly the kind of meaningful social polling to which this article refers.

However, this is not the only kind of polling that is currently carried out in China.  Gallup is also active in China.  Their website can be accessed from within China and does have a page in Chinese although it appears the results of the polls are only available in English.  One recent headline reads ‘Indians More Satisfied Than Chinese With Schools’(link) which is a meaningful expression of non-commercial Chinese sentiment.  Pew Global is also active in China, and their recent Pew Global Attitudes Project contains copious amounts of data based on polling in China(link).  However, this site appears to be blocked in China.  Also, this global project which was conducted across scores of nations contains only two stipulations in its final report, one of which was, “It was not possible to ask Chinese respondents to express opinions about President Hu Jintao.” As for the data they collected, 89% of Chinese respondents expressed satisfaction with their national government and 34% were satisfied with their own life.  The corresponding numbers for the US were 51% and 65%.  These kinds of statistics are occasionally reported in the Chinese press although they often emphasize areas in which China compares favorably with Western countries(link). Thus, we can see that this kind of non-commercial polling is restricted but not outlawed in China.

Internet searches in Mandarin regarding polls are not fruitless.  In fact, MSN’s Chinese site has a poll up asking, ‘Do you support the holding of the 2008 Beijing Olympics?’(link).  However, the question has been posed since April, and a report on the results was not to be found (although there was a link on how to add ‘love China’ next to your MSN display name).  Another example of polling in the Chinese media is a Xinhua report on a poll which found that 90% of Beijing residents supported the ‘every other day’ policy for drivers in the run-up to the Olympics(link).  Obviously, the results of this poll supported the government position and would be seen as more acceptable for publishing.  Thus, from all the above data, we can see that polling exists in China on a limited basis, and is currently used by the government and media on a limited basis.

The issue then becomes what role polling could play in China’s future.  Noam Chomsky theorizes that in a functioning democracy, over time, public policy will follow public opinion.  But what role does public opinion play in an autocracy?  There are some obvious reasons why polling is currently quite limited in China, and other reasons as to why perhaps it shouldn’t be.

Although China’s highest leadership has proclaimed a form of democracy to be their ultimate goal, China is still a very long ways away from the achievement and implementation of that goal.  Currently, the Chinese government is more concerned with controlling information so as to prevent the spread of dissatisfaction.  Thus, national polling could be seen as a threat to the government’s strategy of compartmentalizing elements of dissatisfaction among the people.  The leadership may feel that if the whole nation were able to realize certain areas of commonality, then widespread unrest and rebellion would gain momentum.  Also, polling is a much more active method for gauging public sentiment as opposed to a more passive method such as Chinese officials checking blogs and forums.  With polling, the expression of the will of Chinese people is overt and could thus lead to an expectation that their views will be acted upon.  This may be all too similar to the quid pro quo involved in voting and Western democracy.  If the Chinese government continues to passively collect data, there is no corresponding expectation from the public to act on said data.

However, in the wake of the recent protests and incidents in China, some Chinese authors have already begun to address some of these issues.  It has been theorized that it is exactly these restrictions on public sentiment that can boil over into things like the recent Weng’an incident(link).  For some, the problem lies in the national-level government being unaware of much of the public dissatisfaction. With few outlets for the people to express themselves freely (no voting above the village level, no free press, etc.), their expression is stifled at the local-level of government.  If the government was made aware of these problems beforehand, perhaps they could respond before people take the matter into their own hands.  Also, there have been articles about thousands of Chinese jumping at the opportunity to personally visit higher authorities and air their grievances(link).  At times, their numbers have overwhelmed the system set up to receive them.   A freer media and more democracy are commonly mentioned solutions, but perhaps polling of public opinion could play a role as well.

Regardless of the political structure of the Chinese government, they have acknowledged that stability is their primary goal.  But, how is it possible for the Chinese government to make even limited attempts to align their policies to public opinion if they are unaware of how the public is feeling? Thus, for those who claim that the Chinese government has no interest in polling the public, it could be argued that quite the contrary, it is in their vital interest.  In the same way that elections have been introduced on a limited scale at the village level, the government could take something it has traditionally been threatened by and employ it in the work of providing an outlet for the Chinese people to express themselves.  In fact, this has already begun(link).  It’s no full-blown democracy, but it could be a small step in that direction.  At the very least, the next time the Chinese press or Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu report on ‘all the Chinese people’ or ‘the hurt feelings of the Chinese people,’ there will be statistics that could be used to evaluate their claims.

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