美 Mei - Zhong 中 關 Guan - Xi 系

Guessing Obama’s China Policy
By Liu Yawei
http://www.chinaelections.org/NewsInfo.asp?NewsID=128869
Translation By Anton Lee Wishik II

Now is the time for us to start guessing about Obama’s China policy.  This presidential candidate of half-African lineage, on June 3rd, successfully wrapped up the Democratic primaries.  This means he will become the first black presidential candidate in American history.  Up to this point in Obama’s career, he still lacks foreign policy experience, and it is difficult to determine his probable China policy based on his work in public policy.  The best available method for making an educated guess is to begin by looking at his background, worldview, relevant statements, character, understanding of the international system, and operating standards.

A Detailed Understanding of Poverty and Political Reform in the Third World

From Obama’s family background, possible trends in his foreign policy can be determined, including an increased use of consultation and looking at issues from the other side’s point of view.  Therefore, he will formulate fairly moderate policy decisions.  Obama’s father was a Kenyan official who received scholarships to study at the University of Hawaii and Harvard University.  His mother was a white Protestant from the central state of Kansas.  His father left the family when he was just two years old, and Obama lived with his mother and step-father in Indonesia for many years.  Afterwards, he returned to Honolulu, Hawaii, to study at a private school.  When he was young, his mixed heritage and not-quite-white, not-quite-black skin color made it very difficult for him to be accepted by both black and white social groups.  Thus, he was more than a little solitary and rebellious.  As for this man of mixed culture, mixed race, and many years of experience living in Asia, his foreign policy will definitely not be conducted unilaterally with America as the absolute center.  His experience with Asians will give him a better understanding of Eastern culture, and he will have a more detailed understanding of poverty and political reform in the Third World.

Obama’s worldview can not be separated from the situation in which he was educated.  From middle school to university to graduate school, Obama attended first-class schools with many students from rich families along with many Jewish and Asian students.  Thus, it can be said that his outlook is quite broad, and he has been in contact with people of many different ethnicities.  Therefore, he definitely will not employ a one-sided policy with America and Europe at the center, and will not pass judgment on developments and changes in the external world using a remote and isolated value system.

As a presidential candidate, Obama’s treatise on US-Asian policy is as follows: “in Asia, Obama will create a more effective structure not limited to bilateral agreements, regular summits, and signing provisional agreements…and will continue to maintain secure relations with Japan, Korea, and Australia, will strive to create more extensive communications with East Asia in order to promote stability and prosperity, and will guarantee that China conducts itself according to international standards.”  When discussing the American economy and guaranteeing American employment opportunities, Obama has mentioned several times that he will cancel all tax cuts and preferential treatment for companies that export American jobs, and he will only reward those companies that create employment opportunities in the US.

In July 2004, while running for the Senate, Obama issued the policy paper, Renewing American Leadership, which stated that “on US-Sino differences of opinion, such as the Taiwan issue, America must maintain its position, but in areas where the two countries can join together, flexible tactics should be adopted.  We must uphold labor standards, put human rights first, make China fully open its markets to American products, and closely guard lawful contracts with American companies.  However, we cannot start a trade war with China over these issues, as the results of long-term instabilities in the Chinese economy will be felt globally.”  From this passage, it can be seen that Obama’s family background, education, and worldview apparently have not made him completely familiar with China.  However, at least he believes that the development and stability of the Chinese economy is already a very important link in global economic development and stability.

The Strength of Emphasizing Setting an Example

How does Obama view the operational systems and standards of international relations?  He is committed to the idea that the promotion of America’s own value system is the ultimate aim of American foreign policy.  In 2004, at a meeting of the Foreign Relations Committee in Chicago, Obama gave a speech in which he stated, “in every region on earth, the goal of American foreign policy should be the promotion of traditional American ideals: democracy and human rights, free and fair trade, cultural exchange…this is where the interests of America and the rest of the world are closely linked, and only in this way can we restore our influence in the world…and make American values spread worldwide.”

However, Obama opposes the use of military force simply to impose the will of America on other countries.  He seems to place more emphasis on the strength of setting an example.  He also feels that each country’s behavior is that country’s global ‘license to travel.’  He stated that, “all of the world is watching what we are doing in America.  They know what we are doing here today, and in the future, they will use the same methods towards us — our soldiers, our diplomats, our reporters, and any American traveling abroad.  I hope we all can clearly remember this point.”

Daring to Create New Mechanisms and Institutions

Before finishing his first term as a US senator, Obama decided to run for president.  Many scholars feel Obama represents a movement as America seems to be witnessing his idolization and the rise of the worship of an individual.  Thus, apparently we can infer that not only does Obama have rebellious characteristics, he is even more daring, willing to take risks, and has both a brave and resourceful character.  This kind of person dares to throw out norms, dares to tear down and start over, and dares to create new mechanisms and institutions.  In the Democratic candidates’ debates, Obama twice made policy statements that startled everyone listening.  The first was when he stated that if necessary, he was willing to meet face to face with Kim Jong Il, Castro, and other leaders viewed as dictators by the West.  The second time was when he said that if there was conclusive evidence proving that Osama bin Laden was in northern Pakistan, and the Pakistani government did not permit the US to send troops, he would consider the use of nuclear weapons (Translator’s note: it seems that the author is mistaken here, as Obama mentioned the use of force, but not nuclear weapons).  Although Hillary Clinton criticized Obama’s policy as naïve and childish, many bigwigs among the American foreign policy establishment actually think that if Obama really went through with it, contrary to expectations, it would illustrate his leadership style and would be a stroke of genius.  From the standpoint of Obama’s departure from traditional American policy, it is not impossible to think that he could put forth new ways of thinking and new polices regarding Taiwan and cross-straits relations, the most important and most delicate US-Sino issue.

Obama’s group of foreign policy advisors reportedly includes nearly 200 people.  Some of them will rise to play a decisive role in making Obama’s China policy, such as former National Security Advisor to President Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski; President Clinton’s National Security Advisor, Anthony Lake; and head of the State Department’s China Bureau during the Clinton administration, Jeffrey Bader.  From the backgrounds of these three, it can be seen that they have all adopted pragmatic approaches regarding China policy and are deeply familiar with the ongoing rise of China and the challenges China faces.  Therefore, the recommendations they make will probably be quite practical.  Obama’s group of advisors also includes many who pay close attention to human rights and Africa specialists, and they will all have a large influence on the formulation of China policy.

To sum up, perhaps we can reach the following conclusions: Obama’s path to adulthood contributed to his more detailed and patient understanding of China; as one who thinks especially highly of promoting his own value system, and as a black American with African lineage, Obama definitely will pay painstakingly close attention to so-called human rights and democracy issues.

(The author is in charge of China issues at America’s Carter Center)

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