What China Thinks of Obama, Part I
In honor of my plan to attend a policy discussion in Shanghai with two of Barack Obama’s foreign policy advisors, I plan to post a series of translations of essays which evaluate the possibility of an Obama administration through Chinese eyes (in the end, the aforementioned meeting was canceled at the last minute). This is the first in the series.
A First Analysis of Obama’s China Policy
By Li Zhengxin
China Times
http://www.chinatimes.cc/shendu/HXLL/2008-05-31/20080531200716.html
Translated by Anton Lee Wishik II
More and more signs indicate that in November’s general election, American voters may use their sacred ballots to elect the first black president in American history, young Barack Hussein Obama. Thus, should Obama enter the White House, which special features he will include in his policy towards China will increasingly be the concern of the Chinese (and even American) populace.
From all Obama’s policy statements up until now and the consistent positions of experts on international affairs associated with his campaign, it can be seen that although Obama may continue with basic elements of the Bush administration’s China policy, his unique standpoints will come through on trade, environmental protection, and many other issues. Especially in the first six to twelve months of his campaign, he clearly tended towards tough positions on America’s trade deficit with China, environmental protection, intellectual property rights (IPR), the Chinese currency exchange rate, and even human rights.
It should be said that Obama is no stranger to international issues. At Columbia University, where he earned his Bachelor’s degree, he majored in international relations. In 2005, after becoming a US senator, as a member of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, he gained a more systemic and deepener understanding of foreign affairs. Upon reflection, since appearing on the presidential stage, as far as his foreign policy and China policy, he has yet to put forth any strategic positions that were regarded as unexpected by the outside world.
From the collection of international experts that Obama has chosen to rely on, it seems his China policy will more closely resemble that of the Clinton administration. In fact, many Clinton officials have gathered under Obama’s flag, including: former National Security Advisor and current Georgetown University School of Foreign Service professor, Anthony Lake; former foreign policy advisor to then-Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle and current Center for American Progress senior fellow, Denis McDonough; former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Susan Rice; and former Secretary of the Navy, Richard Danzig. In addition, Obama often seeks out famous strategist and veteran Democrat diplomat Zbigniew Brzezinski for discussions on strategic international issues.
Even though until now China policy has not been a major topic at the candidates’ debates, the universal feeling both within and without Washington DC’s strategic decision making circles is that in America’s future, the Sino-US relationship will be one of the most important bilateral relationships, and therefore, naturally, Obama can not neglect it. Early on, he selected former government officials with expertise on Chinese affairs to mastermind his policy, such as former White House National Security Committee member and senior director of Asia-Pacific affairs for the State Department and current head of the Brookings Institute’s China Center, Jeffrey Bader, as well as Derek Mitchell, who formerly served as the special assistant for Asian and Pacific affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and is proficient in Mandarin Chinese.
As for China policy, the Obama camp’s basic position is that: America should not view China as an “enemy” or “threat” and should not demonize China; it is necessary to handle the rise of China constructively; and America should help China establish its proper position within the international community. Problems still exist between America and China, and conflicts arising out of their divergent interests are inevitable. For this reason, America should interpret and handle these differences with a realistic and long-term vision. However, it is clear from the past twenty years of America’s relations with China that presidential elections often produce distortions within US-Sino affairs. During the elections, each presidential candidate generally adopts an excessively tough posture towards China. Upon taking office, within six months to a year, the reality of things then compels them to ease tensions with China. Obama seems to be repeating this plainly disastrous policy. In the April 2007 Democratic debates, Obama proclaimed that China “in our view, is not an enemy nor a friend, but a competitor. Still, we should ensure that we have enough military communication, and build the corresponding relationships, thereby allowing us to preserve stability in Asia.” Although Obama strongly advocates increased engagement with China, from a strategic standpoint, he is returning once again to the position the nascent Bush administration held more than seven years ago.
Despite this, in light of the large number of Obama’s China advisors with realist positions, and even more due to the fact that America and China’s common interests outweigh their differences, Obama’s “not a friend nor enemy” and “competitor” strategic position towards China is bound to be discarded about half a year after taking office, just like what happened early on in the Clinton and Bush administrations. His China policy will gradually become more rational and realistic. Compared with Bush’s current China policy, when the time comes, the differences in Obama’s policy will mainly appear in issues regarding America and China’s economic relationship.
In light of Democrats and Republicans’ differing points of emphasis concerning US-Sino economic and trade relations, an Obama administration would clearly be tougher on China than the current administration. Obama has repeatedly emphasized that through the social security system and reemployment services, he will provide a way out for the American workers who have suffered as a result of economic globalization. As a supporter of economic internationalization, Obama has stated that free trade has been significant in the development of the world economy and America’s economy. However, Democrats distinguish themselves by placing more emphasis on workers’ rights and environmental protection. These ideas, along with what Obama has said up to this point about China policy, all are useful in predicting an Obama administration’s foreign policy and policy towards US-Sino economics and trade. Not only will workers’ rights and environmental protection be placed at the forefront, but also the trade deficit, IPR, and currency exchange issues. Thus, an Obama administration would put more pressure on China, even to the point of being more likely than the Bush administration to use the WTO to confront China in court on related issues.
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[...] anti-trade rhetoric, one Chinese journalist believes that because much of Obama’s expert team consists of Clinton-era officials, his relationship [...]
Pingback on August 31, 2008 10:51 pm[...] Additionally, this blog provides the translation of a discussion about Obama’s policy from Shanghai: Despite this, in light of the large number of Obama’s China advisors with realist positions, and even more due to the fact that America and China’s common interests outweigh their differences, Obama’s “not a friend nor enemy” and “competitor” strategic position towards China is bound to be discarded about half a year after taking office, just like what happened early on in the Clinton and Bush administrations. His China policy will gradually become more rational and realistic. Compared with Bush’s current China policy, when the time comes, the differences in Obama’s policy will mainly appear in issues regarding America and China’s economic relationship. [...]
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